Population and economic growth

The jump in population, up from 8 billion in 2022, is the single biggest challenge facing the Agri-Food industry globally. Food demand is expected to increase by 56% by 2050, compared to 2013. According to an FAO report: “Income growth in low and middle income countries would hasten a dietary transition towards higher consumption of meat, fruits and vegetables, relative to that of cereals, requiring commensurate shifts in output and adding pressure on natural resources”. India is set to overtake China as the world most densely populated country in 2023, and as India and Africa become more urbanised food consumption patterns will shift again with in increased demand for processed food and meat, one of the most impactful industries worldwide.

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Climate Change

Without efforts to adapt to climate change-related problems food insecurity may well substantially increase, particularly in the least developed countries. Rising sea temperatures will reduce fish catches and floods or droughts will result in lost crops and livestock production.

The proverb: “If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. If you teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime,” is one that organisations like UN-FAO, and many others, are using to guide the solutions to these problems.  Agri-food systems can be major generators of employment and income. Primary production alone provides about one-quarter of all employment globally, more than half in sub-Saharan Africa and almost 60 percent in low-income countries. As Agri-food systems encompass the primary production of food and non-food agricultural products, as well as storage, processing, transportation, marketing, disposal and consumption the potential for the problem to be its own solution is clear. The answer lies partly in the emerging technologies of Agri-Tech, a subject that needs its own blog to explain. Simple solution such as Vertical Farming in environments where arable land is not available, hydroponic, or aeroponic growing methods, and many others are adaptable to low land use and low water use scenarios. 

Farming

In a process called dumping, farms can discard crops that have been planted as a hedge against pests and weather. The price of grain and vegetables fluctuates with consumer demand and rather than go through the additional cost of harvesting and processing products they could not sell they are left in the field to be ploughed back into the land. The goodness from the crop of course returns to the ground and adds additional fertility much like a cover crop would so this is not as black & white as it might seem.

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Retail

The confusion caused by the subtle differences between ‘use by’, ‘best before’, ‘sell by’ and ‘display until’ dates on food lead to shops discarding perfectly usable food. Sadly wasteful practices in the retail industry can still be viewed as good business strategies, offering perfect produce and  overstocked shelves. 

It can be easy to put the blame for food waste in the production chain onto the retailers. Ultimately they are responding to what they believe the consumer demands. So, the real solution lies with us. Many food producers and supermarkets are reviewing their use of “best before” dates on some items. Waitrose, M&S, And Iceland have all removed them from own brand fresh produce. Consumer education around the difference between “use by” and “best before” is also gathering pace. Typically, “best before” dates are related to food quality, whereas “use by” dates relate to food safety and items should usually not be eaten after this deadline. The “look, smell, taste, don’t waste” campaign, run by food waste app Too Good to Go, has enlisted brands like Nestlé and Arla, with these companies switching from use by to best before dates on many products. The media has a role to play in education as well. Morrison’s came under fire from a tabloid newspaper for asking customers to use a sniff test to decide if milk was safe to consume, but overall the message that we can produce and consume food more sustainably is a positive one. 

Farm to Fork initiatives where the supply chain is much shorter between producer and consumer are becoming more popular, and add to the consumer pressure on the major retailers to change their approach. That pressure will filter back through the supply chain and alter the supply chains perception of consumer’s wants. Moving towards less waste in food production can be achieved, and with small achievable steps at that. 

What is resilience in the food industry?

According to The Johns Hopkins University Center for a
Livable Future (CLF), it is “the ability to prepare for, withstand, and recover from a crisis or disruption. A resilient food system is able to withstand and recover from disruptions in a way that
ensures a sufficient supply of acceptable and accessible food for all.” The CLF describes itself as working “at the intersection of public health and food systems” and its work aligns with many of the
United Nations’ 2015 Sustainable Development Goals. SDG 2 is “zero hunger”. The target is to eliminate malnutrition globally by 2030, and within two years of the goals being published 26 of the
202 UN member states had declared themselves free of food poverty. Subsequent events, particularly the Pandemic may have reduced the likelihood that the target will be achieved, the
commitment of the G20 and other economic groups to a “no one left behind” strategy and a focus from the worlds richest nations to support the areas where food insecurity is worst is encouraging.

Food Security

On aspect of food security that the Food Security Report covers is the impact of climate change. It states that: “The biggest medium to long term risk to the UK’s domestic production comes from
climate change and other environmental pressures like soil degradation, water quality and biodiversity”. The Glasgow Food and Climate Declaration that came out of the COP26 shifted the
emphasis of climate change strategy towards food resilience. There is ongoing research into methods of tackling food insecurity at many institutions around the world, notably Johns Hopkins
University CLF mentioned above and the New York City Hunter College Food Policy Center. This research includes short term goals designed to create positive action now, as well as medium and
long term objectives that will support the global move towards Net Zero.

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